Quick Notes About the Best Picture Nominees

by Ted Langlais

Like most other movie addicts, I’ve had a life-long love-hate relationship with the Academy Awards. I’m aware of their faults, that they often overlook the better films that have been produced over the years, and have a complete disregard for the beauty of independent film. Yet, each year, I find myself strangely drawn to their allure, once again immersed in the annual ritual of speculating about the winners, should-have-wons, and what-the-hell-were-they-thinkings.

I remember when I first became aware that the Oscars were fallible in their judgment of movie greatness. It was the mid-eighties. I was a Canadian High School student with nothing to do on a snowy Saturday night in April. So, I trudged through the snow to the local General Store and rented a couple of films, Platoon and The Mission. Both had been nominated for best picture, and Platoon had won. I figured that it was the making of a memorable movie night.

I watched The Mission first because I figured that Platoon had to be the better movie. After all, it did win the Oscar for Best Picture.

From the opening sequence of the Jesuit priest being nailed to the cross and sent over the falls, to the gorgeous harmonies of the choir that accompanied the final battle sequence, the movie held me spell bound. The story of two men sacrificing themselves for what they believed, and dying according to their own principles is one that has haunted me to this day.

Platoon paled in comparison. I’ve have never watched it a second time and really can’t remember much of the story.

That was my first lesson about the Academy Awards. It’s a lesson I’ve kept in mind every year since. Even though I do try to watch the Oscars, I don’t expect the film that I liked the best to really win and I certainly don’t expect the film I liked the best in any given year to even be nominated.

So, with that bias in mind, I give you my brief and humble opinions about the five films that were nominated this past year:

Finding Neverland

I’m not certain whether or not I like Johnny Depp’s new trend of playing the ‘regular’ guy. I really respect him as an actor and I’m happy that he can choose whatever scripts he wants these days. It’s nice to see him in a variety of roles but during Finding Neverland, I kept expecting him to reprise his Pirates of the Caribbean role and dress up as Captain Hook.

Kate, whom I used to refer to as the young Helena Bonham Carter but who is now the older Keira Knightly, delivers a wonderful performance and keeps her clothes on the entire time.

Finding Neverland is blatantly melodramatic in a good way, like Field of Dreams. Its central theme is that fantasy is necessary for any healthy life. My wife cried for the last half of the movie. But, although I’ll probably watch it again when it makes its way to HBO, it just isn’t memorable enough to earn a spot on my DVD shelf.

The Aviator

Better than The Gangs of New York (how much of a compliment is that?)

Leonardo’s best performance since teaming up with Johnny Depp in What’s Eating Gilbert Grape. Toward the end of the movie, I actually forgot that it was Leo I was watching and that’s never happened to me. Hell, it hasn’t even happened to me while watching a Tom Cruise movie.

I can’t believe that Cate Blanchett won the Oscar for her performance. It was basically a one note imitation of cardboard cut out of the real Katherine Hepburn.

The story itself is well filmed and filled with spectacular scenes and drama, but computer graphics imaging still can’t seem to get water to look right.

Sideways

My favourite film of the bunch, so of course it didn’t stand a chance in hell of winning the Oscar.

An intelligent guy film with some pretentious wine tasting lectures and references being the stories only major detriment. Now, if the main character was actually a beer aficionado touring microbreweries, this dialogue might have been believable. Nothing can change the fact that the whole wine thing is the most obvious plot device since Rosebud, however.

The conversations about writing, on the other hand, were realistic and humorous. I’ve had many similar chats with my own friends. I’ve also tried using drafts of novels to win the girl, but the fact that the main character is actually successful in his using “I’m a novelist so love me” modus operandi is pure fantasy.

Even though I thought this was a wonderful film, I still don’t think that I’ll slap down any more cash for it than I already have.

Ray

As much as Ray Charles deserves to be up there with other musicians whose lives have been turned into movies, Ray really doesn’t rise above the level of La Bamba. It was only Jamie Foxx’s performance that got this movie an Oscar nomination in the first place.
And even though, I have a great deal of respect for Jamie Foxx’s performance we all know he benefited from the role he was playing. When was the last time that an actor portraying a “real life” person or someone with a disability did not walk away with the trophy?

Million Dollar Baby

I finally saw this movie today. Is it just my weak imagination, or do other people still see young Clint from The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly or Dirty Harry when they see him in a movie?

The truth is though, that when Eastwood gets behind the camera, he's brilliant. He's brilliant when he's producing, and his music is pretty good too.

Maybe it is just because I had to wait so long to see Million Dollar Baby but I thought it was a (may I use the word again ?) brilliant feature film.

The characters tell the story and the acting is convincing and moving. The camera work isn't flashy but many of the shots use shadow to their full effect, illuminating the actors faces and revealing how much expression can be communicated with a slightly furrowed eyebrow or simple curl of the mouth.

Hilary Swank showed why she has taken home two Oscars. I know she won for her performance during the last thirty minutes of the film but it was really her acting in the first forty-five minutes that won me over.

Thank God I didn't read anything about this movie before seeing it. The twists and turns of the story caught me off guard. Eastwood has done the same thing for the traditional Hollywood boxing film as Unforgiven did for the Western.

Hopefully, he'll do something similar with an aging cop movie in the near future.

I CANNOT GET ANY SLEEP UNTIL THE OSCARS BECAUSE MY MIND IS A MESS

The Academy Awards will be presented on Sunday February 27, 2005. After it is over, I look forward to some good sleep because I have flip-flopped in my mind so many times about 3 of the top categories that my brain is becoming mush. I do not recall a more difficult show to predict since I started doing this column back in the early 90’s. Aviator started strong, with Golden Globes and Producer’s guild wins, but the recent momentum has all been behind Million Dollar Baby, with Clint taking Best Director at both the Golden Globes and more importantly, the Director’s Guild. Factor in the sweeping epic rule vs. beloved academy darlings, and throw in a bit of ‘deserving for their body of work’ and you get a real bunch of dogfights here. When you watch the show, look for the supporting categories, which are given out first, to give you an indication of the night’s events. If Morgan Freeman wins and Cate Blanchett doesn’t, consider Million Dollar Baby to take the major awards and vice versa. After that, if Aviator starts to lose the tech categories, it should be a night for Million Dollar Baby.

As always, I have allocated numbers to the nominees to indicate their percentage chance of winning. I have also put them in order of my confidence. Feel free just to scan down to the ones you are only interested in. Again, remember folks, whoever the academy picks is only THEIR opinion of who is deserving and not reflective of what the whole world or certain individual’s think (There are only 5,000 academy members). So here goes:

Best Picture

48 Aviator

47 Million Dollar Baby

5 Sideways

Ray

Finding Neverland

My Pick: The Aviator

My Second Pick Million Dollar Baby

My Preference: The Aviator

This was one of my three flip-flops. The awards that usually predict the outcome were split: Producers Guild for Aviator and Director’s Guild for Million Dollar Baby. Baby has the momentum, but it’s hard to imagine a character piece winning, especially when you have all those cinematographers and film editors voting for their best picture. That being said, the Screen Actors Guild makes up the majority of the Academy and Clint is very beloved by the Academy…..you see my dilemma.

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Best Director - Motion Picture

51 Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)

49 Martin Scorsese (Aviator)

Alexander Payne (Sideways)

Taylor Hackford (Ray)

Mike Leigh (Vera Drake)

My Pick: Clint Eastwood

My Second Pick Martin Scorsese

My Preference: Clint Eastwood

This is the second flip-flop category. Clint won the DGA, put his movie together with little financing, and the Oscars love him, but he has already won an Oscar for Unforgiven. Martin is one of the greatest directors of our time and has been nominated many times before and never won, and this movie is more of an epic that will get the techies to vote for him. Then again, I feel queasy thinking that this movie is the one he will win for best director. Put in the fact that Jack Nicholson and Warren Beatty used e-mail and phone calls to push for the Roman Polanski upset 2 years ago and you get the idea that it’s up in the air for either.

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Best Performance by an Actor

100 Jamie Foxx (Ray)

Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)

Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator)

Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda)

Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)

My Pick: Jamie Foxx

My Second Pick Clint Eastwood

My Preference: Jamie Foxx

This is the only sure lock of the major categories. Jamie Foxx has won everything, he plays a famous musician who just died this year in a biopic, he made you forget he was an actor, and the speech at the Golden Globes made everyone want to hear something similar on Oscar night. If anyone can shockingly upset, it’s Clint Eastwood, who has never won in this category.

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Best Performance by an Actress

36 Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake

35 Hillary Swank (Million Dollar Baby)

24 Annette Bening (Being Julia)

5 Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)

Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace)

My Pick: Imelda Staunton

My Second Pick Hilary Swank or Annette Bening

My Preference: Kate Winslet

My third and most difficult flip-flop of the year. I have an issue with Hilary Swank winning. It’s hard because I saw her performance, which blew me away, however, she won only 5 years ago and to win this twice would put her in the ranks of Bette Davis, Meryl Streep, Jodie Foster, and Sally Field. The other thing to think about is that a voter would look at the ballot and think `Hey, I voted for Hilary 5 years ago and she won over Annette Bening, maybe this time I will give to Annette`. Do not forget that she is married to Warrren Beatty (see note on Best Director), which is why I think she has been very quiet. However, if some Swank voters go for Annette, then it is quite possible for Vera Drake actress Imelda Staunton to come up and shock everyone. Yeah I know…`Who is Imelda Staunton?` you ask. Well her movie was also nominated for Best Director and Screenplay so it has some notoriety. Still, Hilary’s momentum is pretty strong…………oh good grief! Ok so what do I care! It’s not like I have to predict everything right. I am going on a limb right now and pick at least one upset. I mean this is the perfect year for an upset, eh? I just want you all know how much I struggled with this one.

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

55 Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby)

40 Thomas Haden Church (Sideways)

15 Clive Owen (Closer)

Jamie Foxx (Collateral)

Alan Alda (The Aviator)

My Pick: Morgan Freeman

My Second Pick Thomas Haden Church

My Preference: Morgan Freeman

In this case, the body of Morgan Freeman’s work and the momentum of the movie will help him win it. If he doesn’t, then look for Aviator to start picking up awards.

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

45 Cate Blanchett (The Aviator)

40 Virginia Madsen (Sideways)

15 Natalie Portman (Closer)

Laura Linney (Kinsey)

Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda)

My Pick: Cate Blanchett

My Second Pick Virginia Madsen

My Preference: Cate Blanchett

If Cate doesn’t win, then I think the Aviator is truly going to be shafted. Madsen was wonderful, but I am not sure it is enough.

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Best Original Screenplay - Motion Picture

75 Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

15 The Aviator

5 The Incredibles

5 Vera Drake

Hotel Rwanda

My Pick: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

My Second Pick The Aviator

My Preference: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Can’t imagine Kaufman not winning for Eternal Sunshine. That being said, the other three are all quite able to win. This category doesn’t always follow the fold.

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Best Adaptive Screenplay - Motion Picture

75 Sideways

20 Million Dollar Baby

5 The Motorcycle Diaries

Before Sunset

Finding Neverland

My Pick: Sideways

My Second Pick Million Dollar Baby

My Preference: Sideways

Sideways is the one to beat and it will likely be its only reward.

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Best Original Score

80 Finding Neverland, Jan A.P. Kaczmarek

15 The Passion of the Christ, John Debney

5 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, John Williams

Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, Thomas Newman

The Village, James Newton Howard

Finding Neverland is the only best picture nominee, but don’t count out John Williams’ who wins all the time.

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Best Original Song - Motion Picture

50 Accidentally In Love, Shrek 2

35 Believe, The Polar Express

15 Learn To Be Lonely, The Phantom of the Opera

Al Otro Lado Del Río, The Motorcycle Diaries

Look To Your Path, The Chorus

Basically, it comes down to which song every voter knows—the one from Shrek 2, or the one sung by Josh Groban in Polar Express, or the new Andrew Lloyd Webber song (and he has never won an Oscar)

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Best Animated Film

85 The Incredibles

15 Shrek 2

Shark Tale

Though both Incredibles and Shrek 2 were good, the Incredibles was an original concept and the first. Shrek already won this.

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Best Foreign Language Film

70 The Sea Inside, Spain

30 The Chorus, France

As It Is in Heaven, Sweden

Downfall, Germany

Yesterday, South Africa

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Best Art Direction

45 Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events

40 The Aviator

15 A Very Long Engagement

Finding Neverland

The Phantom of the Opera

Although Aviator has the most nominations, Lemony Snicket won the Art Director`s guild. So if we feel that all the awards will not go to Aviator then go for the smaller films.

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Best Cinematography

40 House of Flying Daggers

35 The Aviator

25 A Very Long Engagement

The Passion of the Christ

The Phantom of the Opera

I am starting to think that maybe the Aviator won’t start sweeping and those individual films like House of Flying daggers and Very Long Engagement (which won its guild award) will take some.

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Best Costumes

70 The Aviator

30 Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events

Finding Neverland

Ray

Troy

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Best Make-up

55 Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events

45 The Passion of the Christ

The Sea Inside

This could be the only category where Passion of the Christ has a chance.

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Best Film Editing

55 Million Dollar Baby

45 The Aviator

Collateral

Finding Neverland

Ray

Aviator won the Editor`s guild but if Million Dollar Baby continues to dominate over Aviator, I am sure we all realize that Clint will take director and picture too.

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Best Sound Mixing

40 Ray

35 The Aviator

25 Spider-Man 2

The Incredibles

The Polar Express

Although Aviator took the guild, the music of Ray should help it win.

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Best Sound Editing

80 Spider-Man 2

20 The Incredibles

The Polar Express

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Best Visual Effects

100 Spider-Man 2

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban

I, Robot

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Best Documentary Feature

60 Born into Brothels

40 Super Size Me

The Story of the Weeping Camel

Tupac: Resurrection

Twist of Faith

Super Size Me is actually a well-known flick so its popularity may help it win.

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Best Documentary Short

70 Autism Is a World

20 Sister Rose’s Passion

10 The Children of Leningradsky

Hardwood

Mighty Times: The Children’s March

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Best Animated Short Film

40 Birthday Boy

40 Gopher Broke

20 Ryan

Lorenzo

Guard Dog

It would be great if the Canadian film Ryan wins.

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Best Live Action Short Film

60 Little Terrorist

30 7:35 in the Morning

10 Everything in This Country Must

Two Cars, One Night

Wasp

So let’s see the Tally of the top ones:

The Aviator -- 3

Million Dollar Baby-- 3

Ray-- 2

Spiderman-- 2

Lemony Snicket-- 2

Sideways-- 1

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind -- 1

Finding Neverland-- 1

Vera Drake-- 1

The Incredibles: -- 1

House of Flying Daggers-- 1

Shrek 2-- 1

by R. Bobby Umar

So there ya go:

The LAST thing I want to say is that usually one film is TOTALLY SHAFTED in either the nominations or the wins. This year, Sideways was shafted in the nominations and I would predict that Aviator could be the one that gets shafted in the wins. If this happens, expect Million Dollar to get more wins and some smaller films to surprise.

American History X and the Nature of Evil

by The "Ex" Patriot

The most surprising thing about American History X is that Edward Norton did not win best actor. His portrayal of a Neo-Nazi, hyper-intelligent punk is as convincing as his performance as a reformed and truly repentant criminal. In fact, if all the film had needed was the talents of the main actor, American History X would have certainly won the Oscar for best picture that year. Unfortunately, the journey of Norton’s character, how he gets from being an innocent, straight A High School student, to a racist murderer, and finally to a repentant young man wishing to return to a place in society is unconvincing to say the least.

The movie does begin with some of the most intense moments on celluloid. Neo-Nazi Derek Vinyard (Norton’s character) is having sex, roughly depicted so that one would think it is an act of anger and hatred rather than love, when is younger brother, Danny (Edward Furlong of Terminator II fame), bursts into the room to warn of the impending danger of African-Americans hanging around outside their home.

We see a barely recognizable Edward Norton rising from the bed, a large tattoo of a swastika emblazoned on his white bony chest. A black hole over his heart. He enjoys disposing of the intruders in a chillingly cruel manner, reminiscent of the ear cutting scene in Reservoir Dogs. Like Reservoir Dogs, we never see the actual acts of violence on film, although the directing is so powerful we believe that we do.

In fact, if the story remained true to its premise and was an analysis of the horrors of the neo-Nazi culture, the racism and the hatred that it engenders, it would have been a much better story. The intelligence of this Neo-Nazi is what makes him truly scary; he even criticizes the redneck, uneducated Ku Klux Klan at one point. His knowledge allows him to gain a group of followers and become a true leader. If this had been the premise of the story, it would have been a truly cutting edge, real-world horror film.

The movie, unfortunately, decides to take another route.

The tale is really one of loss and redemption. Derek is not truly a neo-Nazi, but a man with years of hatred buried within his soul. He spends a relatively short time in prison considering the nature of his crime, and aside from one horrific experience, the days spent there are truly ones of learning and developing an understanding of the world around him. In fact, one of the hardest parts to swallow about the movie is its relatively tame portrayal of life behind bars.

The other problem with the film is that most of the time in prison is narrated by Edward Norton in a story he is telling to his younger brother. Some of the dialogue during this narration is truly embarrassing and comes across as if it was written for a High School drama project. The morals and lessons can be seen a mile away, and rather than the brilliance of the murky morality that surrounds the first part of the film, we are left with a teenager’s sense of black and white, good and evil. The ending which might have been brilliant fifteen years ago, is now clichéd, obvious and takes far too long to reach.

These criticisms aside, most of American History X is highly intelligent, well directed, and acted with passion and dedication. Elliot Gould and Beverly D’Angelo along with Star Trek alumni Avery Brooks and Jennifer Lien are convincing and charismatic. The story, for the most part, is intriguing, and is certainly something that should be seen.

The movie is head and shoulders above ninety five percent of the dreck that Hollywood produces. In fact, if it were not for the last half hour of the movie, American History X would certainly rank up with some of the greatest films ever made about racism, violence, and the true nature of evil.

One Oscar to Rule them All: The King gets his due

– R. Bobby Umar

The Academy Awards will be presented on Sunday February 29, 2004. This year there is a mix of very close races and some major guarantees. I have been waiting for this Oscar event for awhile since I have been anxious for Lord of the Rings to finally get its due. The other interesting thing is that the academy has moved the Oscars a month, earlier which technically should make it harder to predict since the Oscar voters would not have been able to wait to see who won the Golden Globes or the Screen Actors Guild awards before voting. Therefore, they do not have as much pull, which was evident in the nominations not being as closely linked.

One trend has continued from the past few years. The major categories do not have to match each other. Best picture last year was Chicago, while Best Director was Roman Polanski. However, Jack Nicholson and Warren Beatty started a personal campaign to get votes for Polanski and Brody, which ended up in wins. This influence may be more prevalent now and especially for Renee Zellweger, who was the huge frontrunner in her category but is now threatened to be upset.

I have allocated numbers to the nominees to indicate their percentage chance of winning. I have also put them in order of my confidence. Feel free just to scan down to the ones you are only interested in. Again, remember folks, whoever the academy picks is only THEIR opinion of who is deserving and not reflective of what the whole world or certain individual’s think (There are only 6000 academy members). So here goes:

Best Picture

100 LOTR: Return of the King

Mystic River

Lost in Translation

Master & Commander

Seabiscuit

Return of the King’s only miss is that the Academy never votes for fantasy or sci-fi movies. However this movie does come from an extremely popular novel, it’s a sweeping epic, it’s timeless, the series has had wins the past 2 years, critics loved it, it made $1 Billion, and it won the Producers Guild (PGA), Directors Guild (DGA), Screen Actors Guild (SAG) ensemble, and the Golden Globes (GG). The only movie that could possibly upset would be Mystic River but that would be the biggest upset since Chariots of Fire beat out Reds (what movie was that? Exactly!)

My Pick: LOTR: Return of the King

My Second Pick Mystic River

My Preference: LOTR: Return of the King

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Best Director - Motion Picture

100 Peter Jackson, LOTR: Return of the King

Clint Eastwood, Mystic River

Peter Weir, Master & Commander

Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation

Fernando Meirelles, City of God

Peter Jackson won the DGA, which is a 90% predictor. Also the Academy voters are actors, producers, directors, and technical people, who all would marvel at the enormity of Jackson achievement of balancing acting, storytelling, and effect. Again this category is a lock.

My Pick & Preference: Peter Jackson

My Second Pick Clint Eastwood

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Best Performance by an Actor

40 Sean Penn, Mystic River

35 Bill Murray, Lost in Translation

25 Johnny Depp, Pirates of the Caribbean

Ben Kingsley, House of Sand and Fog

Jude Law, Cold Mountain

This one is quite fun because a two-way race between Penn and Murray all of a sudden became three-way when Depp won the SAG. All three were great but Penn has been nominated before and although he never goes to the awards, I believe on the advice of Clint Eastwood he has been going to the various award events. Would love to see Murray win, and I think Depp will come around some other time.

My Pick: Sean Penn

My Second Pick: Bill Murray

My Preference: Bill Murray

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Best Performance by an Actress

80 Charlize Theron, Monster

15 Diane Keaton, Something's Gotta Give

5 Naomi Watts, 21 Grams

Samantha Morton, In America

Keisha Castle-Hughes, Whale Rider

Although Keaton has a lot of industry support, Theron’s transformation has garnered her all the pre-cursor awards and she fits in my yearly ingénue theory. I am sure Watts and Morton will be around again.

My Pick/Preference: Charlize Theron

My Second Pick Diane Keaton

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

70 Tim Robbins, Mystic River

25 Alec Baldwin, The Cooler

5 Djimon Hounsou, In America

Benicio Del Toro, 21 Grams

Ken Watanabe, The Last Samurai

I have loved Tim Robbins for years, ever since Shawshank Redemption. This is his year, as he has won many of the awards and is loved by the industry. Since supporting categories have upsets, I would be cautious here.

My Pick & Preference: Tim Robbins

My Second Pick Alec Baldwin

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

50 Shohreh Aghdashloo, House of Sand and Fog

49 Renée Zellweger, Cold Mountain

1 Patricia Clarkson, Pieces of April

Marcia Gay Harden, Mystic River

Holly Hunter, thirteen

This one is VERY interesting. When the noms came out I was like Zellweger is a LOCK! However, there has been growing momentum for Aghdashloo, the first Iranian ever nominated. Zellweger has been nominated the past three years but she made a few nasty faux pas. Last year, she was so upset losing to Kidman that she went straight home, not joining her team from Chicago that won most of the awards. She also said this year that last year ‘wasn’t fair’ and that she ‘deserves to win this year’. I hope my emotions don’t get the better of me because I really hope she doesn’t win. Zellweger both deserves to win and to lose. She did win the GG and the SAG, but she wasn’t up against Aghdashloo, so my gut is saying the upset will be this year. .

My Pick: Shohreh Aghdashloo

My Second Pick Renee Zellweger

My Preference: Shohreh Aghdashloo

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Best Original Screenplay

80 Lost in Translation

20 In America

Finding Nemo

The Barbarian Invasions

Dirty Pretty Things

Lost in Translation won the Writer's Guild (WG) and the academy would love to give something to Sofia Coppola so this is where it’s going to happen. In America is another nice story with a father sharing the writing with his 2 daughters and it received some acting awards too. Would love to see Finding Nemo win because I think it’s sometimes harder to write for animation.

My Pick: Lost in Translation

My Second Pick In America

My Preference: Finding Nemo

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Best Adaptive Screenplay

33 Seabiscuit

32 Mystic River

20 American Splendor

14 The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King

1 City of God

Mystic River was the front-runner but then American Splendor won the WG. Lord of the Rings may get it for its full body of work. City of God has a chance similar to Pedro Almodovar’s win last year. And finally, Seabiscuit has gained incredible momentum and the Academy would have an opportunity to give a win here. However this one may not necessarily go to the major nominated films. All in all, very confusing. If Robbins and Penn win the acting categories look for them to NOT win here. Since I predicted that, I have to go with Seabiscuit.

My Pick: Seabiscuit

My Second Pick : Mystic River

My Preference: LOTR: Return of the King

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Best Original Score

70 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

20 Big Fish

10 Finding Nemo

Cold Mountain

House of Sand and Fog

Howard Shore won the GG and his body of work for LOTR is impressive.

My Pick: LOTR: Return of the King

My Second Pick Big Fish

My Preference: LOTR: Return of the King

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Best Original Song - Motion Picture

80 "Into the West" - The Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King

20 “You Will Be My Ain True Love" - Cold Mountain

"A Kiss at the End of the Rainbow" - A Mighty Wind

"Scarlet Tide" - Cold Mountain

"Belleville Rendezvous"- The Triplets Of Belleville

Into the West sung by Annie Lennox, won the GG. The two nominations for Cold Mountain from Sting and Elvis Costello will likely split the votes bought by Harvey Weinstein of Miramax.

My Pick: Into the West

My Second Pick Will you be my ain true love

My Preference: Into the West

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Best Animated Film

100 Finding Nemo

The Triplets of Belleville

Brother Bear

Way too easy. It’s also up for score and screenplay

My Pick & Preference: Finding Nemo

My Second Pick: The Triplets of Belleville

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Best Foreign Language Film

70 The Barbarian Invasions (Canada)

30 Evil (Sweden)

The Twilight Samurai (Japan)

Twin Sisters (The Netherlands)

Zelary (Czech Republic)

Canada has an entry for foreign language film? Probably cause French is so foreign to the US. IT is the one to beat since City of God is not here and it is the only film with noms in other categories.

My Pick & Preference: The Barbarian Invasions

My Second Pick: Evil

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Best Art Direction

80 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

15 Girl With a Pearl Earring

5 The Last Samurai

Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Seabiscuit

LOTR won the Art Directors Guild.

My Pick: LOTR: Return of the King

My Second Pick Girl With a Pearl Earring

My Preference: LOTR: Return of the King

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Best Cinematography

60 Seabiscuit

40 Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

City of God

Cold Mountain

Girl With a Pearl Earring

LOTR is not here. Seabiscuit won the American Society of Cinematographers award.

My Pick: Seabiscuit

My Second Pick Master and Commander

My Preference: Seabiscuit

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Best Costumes

45 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

35 The Last Samurai

20 Girl With a Pearl Earring

Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Seabiscuit

My Pick: LOTR: Return of the King

My Second Pick Last Samurai (same designer as LOTR)

My Preference: LOTR: Return of the King

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Best Make-up

95 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

5 Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

My Pick: LOTR: Return of the King

My Second Pick Pirates of the Caribbean

My Preference: LOTR: Return of the King

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Best Film Editing

80 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

10 Master and Commander: the Far Side of the World

10 Seabiscuit

City of God

Cold Mountain

My Pick: LOTR: Return of the King

My Second Pick Master and Commander

My Preference: LOTR: Return of the King

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Best Sound

100 The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Seabiscuit

The Last Samurai

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

My Pick: LOTR: Return of the King

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Best Sound Editing

100 Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

Finding Nemo

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

My Pick: Master and Commander

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Best Visual Effects

The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl

Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World

My Pick: LOTR: Return of the King

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Best Achievement in Documentary Feature

60 Capturing the Friedmans

40 The Fog of War

Balseros

My Architect

The Weather Underground

My Pick: Capturing the Friedmans

My Second Pick The Fog of War

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Best Achievement in Documentary Short Subject

100 Chernobyl Heart

Asylum

Ferry Tales

My Pick: Chernobyl Heart

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Best Animated Short Film

40 Destino

15 Boundin'

15 gone Nutty

15 Harvie Krumpet

15 Nibbles

My Pick: Destino

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Best Live Action Short Film

40 Two Soldiers

15 Die Rote Jacke (The Red Jacket)

15 Most (The Bridge)

15 Squash

15 (A) Torzija ([A] Torsion)

My Pick: Two Soldiers

Giving Gollum the Finger

A brief review of The Return of the King
by theenglish

I have to admit that I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many grown men crying in a movie theatre as when I saw The Return of the King. And I’m not talking about the audience. Peter Jackson’s boldest move in the series was allowing his characters to visibly shed tears. And the tears go on forever. Sam crying with Frodo, Pippen crying in Minis Tirith, Merry crying with Eowyn, and all four of them crying together more than once.

Tolkien’s books in many ways are about manly camaraderie during war and the bond that forms between them. Jackson’s portrayal of this bond has led to many “slasher” groups on the net, and tons of jokes about the homoerotic relationship between Sam and Frodo, but I must admit that it was refreshing to see such unashamed expressions of emotion by male characters in a movie.

The past three years of hobbit-instalments have really been a treat, taking me back to when I was young and truly excited about fantasy adventure movies. Lucky kids of the 21st century. Back in my day, we had to wait three years between instalments. I saw Star Wars when I was seven and Return of the Jedi when I was thirteen. And like the original Star Wars movies, the Lord of the Rings saga is truly movie history in the making.

Unlike George Lucas’ attitude toward the current Star Wars movies, however, Peter Jackson understands that effects are the backdrop of the movie and not its entire story. Jackson also has a great eye for CGI and knows how to make the camera work with the film. The biggest disappointment of last year’s Spider-Man for example, was the cartoon-y super hero fighting the thugs. It looked fake because the camera was still. Jackson’s use of camera movement during the battles is reminiscent of Saving Private Ryan. The non-stop movement is breathtaking and thrilling, but never obscures the action nor does it try to take away from the inherent power of the story.

The Return of the King, like its predecessors, remains nearly 100% faithful to the themes and intent of Tolkien’s story while still taking cinematic license with specific elements. As most of you know, the great Christopher Lee does not make an appearance as Saruman. The Scouring of the Shire never takes place. And Sam never wears the one ring. But these minor differences aside, Jackson and the cast succeed in capturing the sadness, wonder, and beauty that make the end of the trilogy what it is.

Guilds, Globes, and Gargantuan confuse this year's OSCAR RACE

by R. Bobby Umar

The Academy Awards will be presented on Sunday March 23, 2002. There are three new interesting aspects this year. One is Chicago’s ‘sweep-like’ dominance in nominations including its actors. Secondly, Miramax normally puts a ton of marketing behind its nominee, but this year it has three and they have decided to push them in different ways: Chicago for Best Picture, Gangs of New York for Best Director, and Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers for technical. Lastly, the pre-cursor awards have been mixed in the last month and so those who were front-runners have now shifted positions. In fact, the only award I would say is almost a sure thing is Chicago for Best Picture.

One trend has continued from the past few years. The major categories do not have to match each other. Best picture could be Chicago, Best Director Martin Scorsese for Gangs of New York, and the Best Screenplays could be two entirely different movies. However, Chicago threatens to bring the sweep factor back again. This has made the Oscars more difficult to predict and thus more exciting!

So why is it more complex now? A few reasons. About 10 years, the best picture winner would ‘sweep’ the other categories. Then about 7 years ago, movies like ‘The Usual Suspects’ would take away the screenplay awards. In recent years, even the best director does not necessarily win the best picture (e.g., Spielberg wins Director but his Saving Private Ryan lost best picture to Shakespeare in Love. 2 years ago, Soderbergh won Director for Traffic but lost Best Picture to Gladiator). This results in bad news for you Oscar pool hopefuls.

I have allocated numbers to the nominees to indicate their percentage chance of winning. I have also put them in order of my confidence. As well, some of the production companies are listed since they can nowadays make a difference. Feel free just to scan down to the ones you are interested in. Again, remember folks, whoever the academy picks is only THEIR opinion of who is deserving and not reflective of what the whole world or certain individual’s think (There are only 6000 academy members). So here goes:

Best Picture
100 Chicago (Miramax)

The Hours (Paramount)

The Pianist, (Focus Features)

Gangs of New York (Miramax)

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (New Line)

Chicago has won every major award leading up to Oscar night including the Golden Globe (GG), Best ensemble for the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), and the Producers Guild. Any other movie win would be a huge upset, although there is merit for pretty much all of them.

My Pick: Chicago

My Second Pick Gangs of New York

My Preference: Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

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Best Director - Motion Picture

60 Martin Scorsese, Gangs Of New York (Miramax)

40 Rob Marshall, Chicago (Miramax)

Pedro Almodóvar, Talk To Her (Sony Classics)

Stephen Daldry, The Hours (Paramount)

Roman Polanski, The Pianist (Focus Features)

Scorsese seemed to be in the lead when Marshall all of a sudden won the Director’s Guild (DG), which is a 90% predictor. Last year, I predicted Robert Altman would win for his lifetime body of work even though Ron Howard won the DG. The same situation exists here but the big difference is that Rob Marshall is a very young first-timer. Miramax supports both but they have been campaigning for Scorsese so give him the slight edge.

My Pick & Preference: Martin Scorsese

My Second Pick Rob Marshall

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Best Performance by an Actor

60 Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs Of New York (Miramax)

30 Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt (New Line)

10 Adrien Brody, The Pianist (Focus Features)

Nicolas Cage, Adaptation (Columbia)

Michael Caine, The Quiet American (Miramax)

Each nominee has won before except Brody so that gives him a good chance. Daniel Day-Lewis' SAG and GG win locks his lead in this race. If Nicholson wins, he will tie Katherine Hepburn for the most Best Actor Oscars with 4. He is a definite runner-up but I am giving it to Day-Lewis.

My Pick & Preference: Daniel Day-Lewis

My Second Pick Jack Nicholson

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Best Performance by an Actress

50 Nicole Kidman, The Hours (Paramount)

30 Renée Zellweger, Chicago (Miramax)

20 Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven (Focus Features)

Diane Lane, Unfaithful (Fox)

Salma Hayek, Frida (Miramax)

We literally have quite an exciting three-way race here. First, it was Moore who had all the buzz. Then Kidman started winning the GG and later awards. Last week, Renee Zellweger won the SAG award, which gives even more credence to the Chicago ‘sweep’ theory. Chicago could win everything including Zellweger here and later, Marshall for Best Director. I am hoping otherwise.

My Pick: Nicole Kidman

My Second Pick Renée Zellweger

My Preference: Julianne Moore

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

50 Chris Cooper, Adaptation (Columbia)

35 Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can (DreamWorks)

15 Paul Newman, Road To Perdition (DreamWorks)

John C. Reilly, Chicago (Miramax)

Ed Harris, The Hours (Paramount)

Chris Cooper just last month was considered a ‘shoo-in’ like Jennifer Connelly was last year because he won every single pre-cursor award. But then The SAG award went to Walken. His momentum may be enough to win even though he has won before. Paul Newman may also get a ‘lifetime’ award but I don’t believe it is well deserved. Also, remember that historically, Supporting Actor has had many surprises over the years (James Coburn, Jim Broadbent, etc)

My Pick: & Preference: Chris Cooper

My Second Pick Christopher Walken

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

65 Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago (Miramax)

15 Julianne Moore, The Hours (Paramount)

15 Kathy Bates, About Schmidt (New Line)

4 Meryl Streep, Adaptation (Columbia)

1 Queen Latifah, Chicago (Miramax)

This is the only category where I believe it is quite possible for any one of these women legitimately to win. Zeta-Jones’ SAG further solidifies her bid to win the Supporting Actress Oscar. Moore could win because voters who vote for Zellweger or Kidman for Best Actress may put her down in Supporting instead. It could also split her popularity. Kathy Bates won the GG and had tremendous support earlier on. Streep is loved by the academy and has never won in this category. This finally leaves Latifah, whose amazing performance could win for several reasons. She fits the ‘Ingénue’ theory (e.g. Mira Sorvino, Angelina Jolie, Marisa Tomei, etc), and her win would continue last year’s African-American wins. Lastly, this category also has a history of shockers (Anna Paquin, Marisa Tomei, etc). However, I think the ingénue in this case is Zeta-Jones. After all, she is only 33 years old.

My Pick: Catherine Zeta-Jones

My Second Pick Julianne Moore

My Preference: Queen Latifah

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Best Original Screenplay

50 Far From Heaven, Todd Haynes

30 Talk to Her, Pedro Almodóvar

20 My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Nia Vardalos

Gangs of New York, Jay Cocks, Kenneth Lonergan, and Steven Zaillian

Y Tu Mama Tambien, Alfonso and Carlos Cuaron

Bowling For Columbine won the Writer's Guild (WG) resulting in confusion on the Oscar race, as it is not a nominee. Far From Heaven had a major lead earlier but now the nominations may change that, given the two Spanish entries. Pedro is very popular and could easily be awarded here instead of Best Director. Nia Vardalos has a good shot because of her movie’s popularity and that its Tom Hanks production company, but it would be considered an upset if she wins.

My Pick: Far From Heaven

My Second Pick Hable Con Ella (Talk to Her)

My Preference: Y Tu Mama Tambien

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Best Adaptive Screenplay

45 The Hours, David Hare

42 Adaptation, Charlie Kaufman

13 Chicago, Bill Condon

The Pianist, Ronald Harwood

About A Boy, Peter Hedges and Chris & Paul Weitz

Adaptation had all the momentum coming in, but then The Hours won the Writer’s Guild plus the scriptwriters’ award. However, similar to last year, it may not be enough to dethrone them. Chicago could win due to a sweep.

My Pick & Preference: The Hours

My Second Pick : Adaptation

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Best Original Score

40 Frida, Elliot Goldenthal

30 Catch Me If You Can, John Williams

18 Far From Heaven, Elmer Bernstein

12 The Hours, Philip Glass

Road To Perdition, Thomas Newman

I like the interesting group here, with Bernstein, Glass, Williams, and Newman. Frida has won two major awards including the GG and so it is the one to beat. The Hours won the British Oscars and John Williams has several Oscars to his credit, and this one is unlike his previous scores. For me, the score should enhance the movie and not take away from it.

My Pick: Frida

My 2nd Pick: Catch me if you Can

My Preference: Far from Heaven

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Best Original Song - Motion Picture

40 "The Hands That Built America,” Gangs Of New York, Music and Lyric by U2

35 "I Move On,” Chicago, Music by John Kander, Lyric by Fred Ebb

25 "Father and Daughter,” The Wild Thornberrys Movie, Music and Lyric by Paul Simon

“Burn It Blue,” Frida, Music by Elliot Goldenthal, Lyric by Julie Taymor

"Lose Yourself,” 8 Mile (Universal), Music & Lyrics by Eminem, Jeff Bass and Luis Resto

U2 won the GG and, along with Paul Simon, had the most momentum here. However, the Chicago juggernaut threatens to take it all away. Someday Eminem will have his day, but not today. U2 has a very Americana song that might help it.

My Pick: The Hands the Built America

My Second Pick I Move On

My Preference: Father and Daughter

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Best Animated Film

80 Miyazaki’s Spirited Away, (Walt Disney)

15 Ice Age (20th Century Fox)

5 Lilo & Stitch (Walt Disney)

Spirit: Stallion Of The Cimarron (Dreamworks)

Treasure Planet (Walt Disney)

When you read all the people’s preference’s on various website, they all go crazy for Lilo and Stitch, and Ice Age. Noone thinks about Spirited Away, which has won incredible Critical acclaim everywhere. Its only problem is that many Oscar voters may not watch it, and thus not vote for it. If I could give negative points to Treasure Island, I would.

My Pick & Preference: Spirited Away

My Second Pick: Ice Age

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Best Art Direction

40 Chicago

25 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

25 Gangs of New York

10 Frida

Road to Perdition

LOTR won at the Art Director’s Guild, but again Chicago has the broom. Gangs had some very nice sets.

My Pick: Chicago

My Second Pick LOTR: The Two Towers

My Preference: Gangs of New York

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Best Cinematography

50 Road To Perdition

30 Far From Heaven

20 Chicago

Gangs Of New York

The Pianist

Far From Heaven has been winning many pre-cursors and Chicago has the mop. However, Conrad Hall recently passed away and he won the Cinematographer Society award, so he should win posthumously

My Pick: Road To Perdition

My Second Pick Far From Heaven

My Preference: The Pianist

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Best Costumes

55 Chicago

45 Frida

Gangs of New York

The Hours

The Pianist

This usually goes to those movies from a different time. Frida got lovely reviews regarding its innovation with colour, but Chicago had some dazzling displays of cloth and skin.

My Pick & Preference: Chicago

My Second Pick: Frida

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Best Make-up

100 Frida

The Time Machine

Due to a major screw-up in this category, only 2 films were nominated. Incredible that movies such as LOTR are not here. Frida shares being a ‘shoo-in’ with Chicago, although for a lesser category.

My Pick & Preference: Frida

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Best Film Editing

60 Chicago

30 Gangs of New York

10 The Hours

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

The Pianist

The American Cinema Editors Awards were won by Chicago, and Gangs, but which one holds the bigger broom. Hmmm…

My Pick: Chicago

My Second Pick: Gangs of New York

My Preference: LOTR: The Two Towers

----------------------------------------

Best Sound

40 Chicago

25 Road To Perdition

25 Gangs Of New York

10 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Spider-Man

At this point, can I just say that I am annoyed with the idea that LOTR: The Two Tower is ‘so last year…’ Hmmph.

My Pick: Chicago

My Second Pick: Road to Perdition

My Preference: LOTR: The Two Towers

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Best Sound Editing

80 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

20 Road To Perdition

Minority Report

Unless this is Conrad Hall night, go with LOTR.

My Pick: A Beautiful Mind

My Second Pick: Lord of the Rings (LOTR)

My Preference: Lord of the Rings

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Best Visual Effects

100 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Star Wars: Attack of the Clones

Spider-man

I think Gollum pretty much says it all. He was so good, that people wanted a nomination in Supporting Actor. Spider-man was an excellent movie but the effects were weak in comparison. In addition, at the Visual Effects Society Awards, LOTR won 8 out of 10 awards.

My Pick & Preference: LOTR: The Two Towers

My Second Pick: Star Wars: Attack of the Clones

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Best Foreign Language Film

45 Nowhere In Africa, Germany

25 The Crime Of Father Amaro, Mexico

20 Hero, China

10 The Man Without A Past, Finland

Zus & Zo, The Netherlands

I do not know too much about this category, but there has been some buzz for the first three, especially Nowhere in Africa

My Pick: Nowhere in Africa

My Second Pick: The Crime Of Father Amaro

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Best Achievement in Documentary Feature

95 Bowling For Columbine (UA), Michael Moore and Michael Donovan

2 Daughter From Danang (Cowboy Pictures), Gail Dolgin and Vincente Franco

1 Prisoner Of Paradise (Alliance Atlantis), Malcolm Clarke and Stuart Sender

1 Spellbound (THINKFilm), Jeffrey Blitz and Sean Welch

1 Winged Migration (Sony Classics), Jacques Perrin

Wow, here there is one that many people have heard of! Then again, even Hoop Dreams lost.

My Pick & Preference: Bowling for Columbine

My Second Pick Daughter from Danang

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Best Achievement in Documentary Short Subject

80 Twin Towers

20 Mighty Times: The Legacy Of Rosa Parks

The Collector Of Bedford Street

Why Can't We Be A Family Again?

It used to be that movies about the Holocaust and racial oppression (like apartheid or slavery) were the ones to win. Given 9/11, this is now the new real-life story that everyone, including the Oscars, will recognize and relate to.

My Pick: Twin Towers

My Second Pick: Mighty Times

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Best Animated Short Film

60 Mike's New Car

30 The Chubbchubbs

5 Mt. Head

3 The Cathedral!

2 Das Rad

Mike’s New Car is also another one people have heard of, since it was on the Monster’s Inc DVD.

My Pick & Preference: Mike’s New Car

My Second Pick The Chubbchubbs

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Best Live Action Short Film

50 Inja (Dog)

30 Fait D'Hiver

20 Johnny Flynton

I'll Wait For The Next One... (J'Attendrai Le Suivant...)

This Charming Man (Der Er En Yndig Mand)

My Pick: Inja

My Second Pick: Fait D’hiver

So there you have it. I have Chicago winning 6, but that could easily be 8 or 9, and possibly 3 or 4, but I think it is more likely to go up than down. As for best dressed, Nicole Kidman and Salma Hayek have never been on a worst dressed list so you can count on them to shine as much as Halle Berry. I am also look forward to seeing what Queen Latifah will wear as well as Catherine Zeta-Jones’ maternity dress. I hope that Jennifer Connelly will rebound from her disastrous, unflattering, and anorexic look last year and Gwyneth will stay away from Goth. My guess for the most unique one will probably be Julianne Moore.

Here is the final tally.

6 Chicago

3 Gangs of New York

2 Frida

2 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

2 The Hours

1 Adaptation

1 Far From Heaven

1 Road to Perdition

Good luck, and have fun.

Think you can do better? Sign up for ScribeCentral.com's Oscar Pool . Don't forget you need a Yahoo! ID and the Group #2949 and password: scribecentralop are needed as well.

Or discuss Bobby's picks at the
ScribeCentralBBB .

Bobby vs The Academy, Round 1, Nomination Results

Bobby’s Score:

Best Picture: 4 out of 5, although he did include The Pianist as his first choice as a possible contender if one of his picks wasn’t nominated.

Best Directory: 4 out of 5, but who would have thought they’d snub Peter Jackson? Bobby was right in saying that there is always one nominee for director who is not nominated for best picture. This year it was Pedro Almodovar for Hable a Ella. Funny thing though, wasn’t his a** kicked all over the place at the European film awards this year?

Best Actor: 4 out of 5, although Bobby did say that he only gave a slight nod to Richard Gere over Michael Caine who has indeed been nominated.

Best Actress: PERFECT SCORE! 5 for 5, although am I the only one who fell asleep during “Unfaithful” and didn’t really get a chance to see why Diane Lane was nominated?

Best Supporting Actor: 3 out of 5, Bobby picked Dennis Quaid and Alfred Molina whereas the Academy saw fit to nominate Ed Harris and John C. Reilly, both of whom Bobby picked as possible winners.

Best Supporting Actress: 4 out of 5, Bobby picked Patricia Clarkson over Julianne Moore while suggesting that Moore was a highly possible candidate.

Best Original Screenplay: 4 out of 5, Bobby picked Punch Drunk Love over Y Tu Mama Tambien, perhaps the crudest film I’ve seen in my life. I’m sorry, while I really enjoyed this film and thought it did a great job of demonstrating the class differences that exist in Latin American society, I really don’t understand why it was nominated over other more deserving Latin Films, nor why it even qualified considering it was released in 2001. Help me Bobby!!! Nevertheless, our Oscar guru did pick the crudely titled movie as a highly possible contender.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 3 out of 5, Bobby chose The Two Towers and About Schmidt over The Piano and About a Boy. Bobby did include these on his possible nominations list.

Best Foreign Language Film: 1 out of 5, sorry Bobby! However, including Bobby’s possible contender category, his score is 3 out of 5 here.

Best Animated Feature: 3 out of 5, Bobby only chose three, so including is possible contender list, his score should be 4 out of 5. He missed Treasure Planet, go figure.

Best Original Score: 4 out of 5, Bobby chose Peter Gabriel’s Rabbit Proof Fence when the nomination went to the composer for Road to Perdition. I guess comic books hold more weight in Hollywood than pop stars.
Best Song: 3 out of 5, missing songs from Frida and Chicago completely.

Art Direction: 4 out of 5, Bobby chose The Pianist while the academy chose Frida.

Cinematography: 3 out of 5, Bobby chose The Two Towers and Frida over Chicago and the Pianist.

Best Costumes: 3 out of 5, Bobby chose The Two Towers and Road to Perdition instead of the Academy’s choices, The Hours and The Pianist.

Best Make-Up: 2 for 2, Perfect Score.

Best Film Editing: 4 for 5, Bobby chose Minority Report over The Pianist (which has been quite the surprise favourite this year).

Best Sound: 3 out of 5, Bobby chose Minority Report and Star Wars over the Academy’s choice of The Road to Perdition and Gangs of New York

Sound Editing: 2 out of 3, Bobby chose Spider-Man over Road to Perdition. What the hay? One comic book film for another.

Visual Effects: 2 for 3, Bobby choosing Minority Report over the Academy’s Spider-Man.

So, how did Bobby do this year?

At first glance it looks like 65 out of a possible 93 or about 70%. Putting this into perspective of the five categories, Bobby scored a 3.5 out of 5. Not bad Bobby.

So, now the countdown to March 23 is on. If anyone wishes to submit a score card for the nominations, they will be posted up alongside Bobby’s over the course of the next month.

Cheers.

Bobby's Oscar Predictions 2003, Picking the Nominations

NO CLEAR FRONT-RUNNER FOR BEST PICTURE IN OSCAR NOMINATION RACE

– R. Bobby Umar

The Oscar Nominations will be announced on February 11, 2003. The results will set the course for the Oscar race to be determined in March 23, 2003. Since I have been following these awards and the Oscars for about 15 years now, I thought I would share my views of who is going to win and why. Naturally, I am not perfect but my predictions are fairly accurate. I will attempt to isolate who will get nominated, who would be good alternate choices, and who the long shots are. Remember folks, whoever the academy picks is only THEIR opinion of who is deserving and not reflective of what the whole world or certain individual’s think (There are only 7000 academy members). Any item with an asterisk (*) beside it means ‘shoo-in’. I have also put them in order of my confidence. As well, some of the production companies are listed since they can nowadays make a difference. Feel free to just scan down to the ones you are only interested in.

So why is it more complex now? A few reasons. About 10 years, the best picture winner would ‘sweep’ the other categories. Then about 7 years ago, movies like ‘The Usual Suspects’ would take away the screenplay awards. In recent years, even the best director does not necessarily win the best picture (e.g., Spielberg wins Director but his Saving Private Ryan lost best picture to Shakespeare in Love. 2 years ago, Soderbergh won Director for Traffic but lost Best Picture to Gladiator). So now it is more… how do you say?...Ah yes!...compliquée…

Best Picture

*Chicago (Miramax)

*The Hours (Paramount)

Gangs of New York (Miramax)

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (New Line)

Far From Heaven (Focus Features)

The two that I am iffy on are LOTR, only because it hasn’t really won much pre-awards, and Far From Heaven, which had great momentum but seems to have lost it quickly. Moreover, I am getting rid of The Pianist by a hair only because I had to pick one Best Director’s movie to not be picked since it happens every single year…so I went with Polanski. LOTR is hard to ignore and Peter Jackson did get the Directors Guild nomination. I am sure one of these three will be the one where the Picture/Director doesn’t match. My Big Fat Greek Wedding would be a shocker indeed, but since it was produced by academy-loved Tom Hanks, who knows? In addition, Spain did not submit Talk to Her in the Foreign Language category perhaps with the hope it would get a nomination with the big boys. Ay Caramba, I think they need to be more critical.

Other good possibles: The Pianist, (Focus Features), Adaptation, (Columbia), About Schmidt, (New Line), Catch Me If You Can, (DreamWorks)

Longshots/Spoilers: My Big Fat Greek Wedding (IFC Films), Talk To Her (Sony Classics),

Road to Perdition (DreamWorks)

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Best Director - Motion Picture

*Stephen Daldry, The Hours (Paramount)

*Martin Scorsese, Gangs Of New York (Miramax)

Rob Marshall, Chicago (Miramax)

Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (New Line)

Roman Polanski, The Pianist (Focus Features)

There is ALWAYS one director that doesn’t get a Best Picture. I am going with Polanski getting this one but not Best Picture and the opposite happening to Haynes for Far From Heaven. They both could easily be replaced by Jonze or Payne.

Other good possibles: Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven, Spike Jonze, Adaptation,(Columbia), Alexander Payne, About Schmidt (New Line), Steven Spielberg, Catch Me If You Can (DreamWorks)

Longshots/Spoilers: Pedro Almodóvar, Talk To Her (Sony Classics)

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Best Performance by an Actor

*Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs Of New York (Miramax)

*Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt (New Line)

Adrien Brody, The Pianist (Focus Features)

Nicolas Cage, Adaptation (Columbia)

Richard Gere, Chicago (Miramax)

This is pretty much a six-man race but I am giving Richard Gere his first ever nomination, above Michael Caine, only because Chicago dominated the Screen Actor Guilds (SAGs) and he won a Golden Globe (GG). Caine could also knock out Cage but the first three seem a pretty good bet.

Other good possibles: Michael Caine, The Quiet American (Miramax)

Longshots/Spoilers: Leonardo DiCaprio, Catch Me If You Can (DreamWorks)

Adam Sandler, Punch-Drunk Love (Columbia), Robin Williams, One Hour Photo, Kieran Culkin, Igby Goes Down

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Best Performance by an Actress

*Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven (Focus Features)

*Nicole Kidman, The Hours (Paramount)

*Diane Lane, Unfaithful (Fox)

Renée Zellweger, Chicago (Miramax)

Salma Hayek, Frida (Miramax)

This category has many potentials. The only sure ones are the first three, although Lane is lucky to be here since her movie was so long ago. Zellweger won the GG, which really helps. The last spot I give to Hayek mostly because she exec-produced Frida for so long, and Streep will likely get a nomination anyways in Supporting.

Other good possibles: Meryl Streep, The Hours (Paramount)

Longshots/Spoilers: Nia Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding (IFC Films), Maggie Gyllenhaal, Secretary

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

*Chris Cooper, Adaptation (Columbia)

Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can (DreamWorks)

Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven (Focus Features)

Paul Newman, Road To Perdition (DreamWorks)

Alfred Molina, Frida (Miramax)

Usually this category is the toughest, yet it seems that everything is reversed this year. This one may be the easiest one to pick a winner since Chris Cooper is this year’s Jennifer Connelly. Like her, we shall see how long he keeps winning every pre-cursor award. Although Paul Newman wasn’t nominated for a SAG, his history and the role he played are powerful enough to warrant a nomination. Molina and Harris got SAG noms but The Hours has way too many potential nominations. If both Moore and Clarkson get noms then you can count Harris too. The same goes for Hayek/Molina or John C. Reilly with the Chicago cast. Note also that Andy Serkis has made history with his incredible lifelike portrayal of Gollum – and he did all the movement, plus the voice. The academy will either eventually have to recognize this or invent a new category. I would recommend the former.

Other good possibles: Ed Harris, The Hours (Paramount), John C. Reilly, Chicago (Miramax),

Longshots/Spoilers: Ray Liotta, Narc, Tom Hanks, Catch Me if you Can, Viggo Mortensen, LOTR

Special Mention: Andy Serkis as Gollum, LOTR: The Two Towers

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

*Kathy Bates, About Schmidt (New Line)

Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago (Miramax)

Meryl Streep, Adaptation (Columbia)

Queen Latifah, Chicago (Miramax)

Patricia Clarkson, The Hours (Paramount)

There are tons of potentials here. The only for sure candidate is Kathy Bates. Both Moore and Streep have a big chance to score nominations in both acting categories and I think it may be my one big mistake. I tend to like favouring other unknowns for this. Pfeiffer was also nominated for a SAG as was Moore so it’s tougher to decide here. The last two could easily be switched with the two below.

Other good possibles: Julianne Moore, The Hours (Paramount), Michelle Pfeiffer, White Oleander (Warner Bros.)

Longshots/Spoilers: Toni Collete, About a Boy, Emily Watson, Punch-Drunk Love, Samantha Morton, Minority Report, Edie Falco, Sunshine State, Cameron Diaz, Gangs Of New York, Susan Sarandon, Igby Goes Down, Miranda Richardson, Spider

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Best Original Screenplay - Motion Picture

*Far From Heaven, Todd Haynes

*Gangs of New York, Jay Cocks, Kenneth Lonergan, and Steven Zaillian

*My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Nia Vardalos

Punch-Drunk Love, Paul Thomas Anderson

Talk to Her, Pedro Almodovar

The first three are pretty locked. Punch-Drunk-Love is a good bet since Anderson has been nominated twice before, although the Writer’s Guild (WG) gave noms to Antwone Fisher and Bowling for Columbine. However, this is the only category in which Pedro Almodovar has a shot for a nom so I am giving him the benefit of doubt here.

Other good possibles: Y Tu Mama Tambien, Alfonso and Carlos Cuaron, Antwone Fisher (Fox Searchlight), Antwone Fisher, Bowling For Columbine (UA), Michael Moore

Longshots/Spoilers: Igby Goes Down, Burr Steers & Dylan Kidd, Sunshine State,

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Best Adaptive Screenplay - Motion Picture

*Adaptation, Charlie Kaufman

*About Schmidt, Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor

*Chicago, Bill Condon

*The Hours, David Hare

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Phillipa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Stephen Sinclair & Fran Walsh

About a Boy was nominated for a WG, but I think the fifth choice is between LOTR and The Pianist,

depending upon which of those two get the Best Picture/Director noms.

Other good possibles: The Pianist, Ronald Harwood, About A Boy, Peter Hedges and Chris & Paul Weitz, Frida, Rodrigo Garcia, The Quiet American, Robert Shenkkan & Christopher Hampton

Longshots/Spoilers: Catch Me If You Can, Jeff Nathanson, Minority Report, Scott Frank & Jon Cohen, Auto Focus, Michael Gerbosi & Paul Schrader, Nicholas Nickleby, Doug McGrath

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Best Foreign Language Film

*City Of God (Miramax), Brazil

Hero (Miramax), China

Balzac and the Little Chinese Seamstress, France

Nowhere In Africa, Germany

Mondays in the Sun, (Lion`s Gate), Fernando León de Aranoa

I know many people are looking for Atanarjuat (The Fast Runner), but it is ineligible due to its submission as an entry last year. Why it wasn’t nominated is beyond me-- probably that Canada doesn’t seem foreign to the US. Also, this year, Talk to Her was ineligible so it leaves this category wide open.

Other good possibles: The Man Without a Past, Aki Kaurismäki, El Crimen Del Padre Amaro (Samuel Goldwyn), Mexico

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Best Animated Film

*Miyazaki’s Spirited Away, (Walt Disney)

*Ice Age (20th Century Fox)

Lilo & Stitch (Walt Disney)

Spirited Away is the one to beat and it’s a foreign film to boot. Ice Age was so long ago, the name makes sense here, and Lilo & Stitch was just a low quality movie getting by in a bad year for animated flicks.

Other good possibles: Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron

Longshots/Spoilers: The Wild Thorn berry’s

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Best Original Score

*Frida, Elliot Goldenthal

*Far From Heaven, Elmer Bernstein

*The Hours, Philip Glass

Catch Me If You Can, John Williams

Rabbit-Proof Fence, Peter Gabriel

I like the interesting group here, with Bernstein, Glass, Williams, and Gabriel. They used to split this category into Comedy/Musical and Drama, but they went back to the old one….probably because Dominant Disney stopped making those amazing musicals….too bad.

Other good possibles: The Pianist, 25th Hour, Terence Blanchard, Minority Report,

Longshots/Spoilers: LOTR: The Two Towers, Howard Shore, Gangs of New York,

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Best Original Song - Motion Picture

*"The Hands That Built America,” Gangs Of New York, U2

*"Father and Daughter,” The Wild Thornberrys Movie, Paul Simon

*"Lose Yourself,” 8 Mile, Eminem

“Hero,” Spider-Man, Chad Kroeger

“Here I Am,” Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron, Music by Hans Zimmer, Lyrics by Bryan Adams and Gretchen Peters

Other good possibles: "Gollum's Song," lyrics Fran Walsh, music Howard Shore, sung by Emiliana Torrini

Longshots/Spoilers "Die Another Day,” Die Another Day, Music by Madonna and Mirwais Ahmadzaï, Lyrics by Madonna

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Best Art Direction

*Chicago, John Myhre

*Gangs of New York, Dante Ferretti

*The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Grant Major

Road to Perdition, Dennis Gassner

The Pianist, Nenad Pecur

Other good possibles: Far From Heaven, The Hours, Minority Report

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Best Cinematography

*Far From Heaven, Edward Lachman

*The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Frida, Rodrigo Prieto

Road to Perdition, Conrad L. Hall

Gangs of New York, Michael Ballhaus

Other good possibles: Minority Report and Chicago

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Best Costumes

*Chicago, Colleen Atwood

*Frida, Julie Weiss

*The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Ngila Dickson

Road to Perdition, Albert Wolsky

Gangs of New York, Sandy Powell

Other good possibles: Far From Heaven

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Best Make-up

*Frida, Judy Chin, Maryann Marchetti, John Jackson

The Time Machine, Stan Winston

Other Possibles: Harry Potter And The Chamber Of Secrets (Warner Bros.), Amanda Knight, Jane Royle, Clare LeVesconte; The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers, Gino Acevedo, Jason Docerty, Richard Taylor; Chicago, Samuel Jordan, Patricia Keighran, Edelgard Pfuegl

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Best Film Editing

*Chicago, Martin Walsh

*The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, D. Michael Horton, Jabez Olssen

The Hours, Peter Boyle

Gangs of New York, Thelma Schoonmaker

Minority Report, Michael Kahn

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Best Sound

*The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Chicago

Spider-Man

Minority Report

Star Wars: Attack of the Clones

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Best Sound Editing

*The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Minority Report

Spider-Man

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Best Visual Effects

*The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Star Wars: Attack of the Clones

Minority Report

So let’s see the Tally: 10 Chicago

10 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

9 Gangs of New York

7 The Hours

6 Far From Heaven

6 Frida

4 Road to Perdition

4 Minority Report

3 The Pianist

3 Adaptation

3 About Schmidt

3 Spiderman

2 Star Wars: Attack of the Clones

1 My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Talk to Her, Punch-Drunk-Love, Unfaithful, Rabbit-Proof Fence, The Time Machine, 8 Mile, The Wild Thornberrys, Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron, Spirited Away, Ice Age, Lilo & Stitch

So there ya go:

The LAST thing I want to say is that usually one film gets TOTALLY SHAFTED in the nominations. This year, I would predict that either Frida or Road to Perdition would get shafted. I would also predict that either The Pianist or About Schmidt would benefit from this, or it would be split amongst smaller films.