I CANNOT GET ANY SLEEP UNTIL THE OSCARS BECAUSE MY MIND IS A MESS

The Academy Awards will be presented on Sunday February 27, 2005. After it is over, I look forward to some good sleep because I have flip-flopped in my mind so many times about 3 of the top categories that my brain is becoming mush. I do not recall a more difficult show to predict since I started doing this column back in the early 90’s. Aviator started strong, with Golden Globes and Producer’s guild wins, but the recent momentum has all been behind Million Dollar Baby, with Clint taking Best Director at both the Golden Globes and more importantly, the Director’s Guild. Factor in the sweeping epic rule vs. beloved academy darlings, and throw in a bit of ‘deserving for their body of work’ and you get a real bunch of dogfights here. When you watch the show, look for the supporting categories, which are given out first, to give you an indication of the night’s events. If Morgan Freeman wins and Cate Blanchett doesn’t, consider Million Dollar Baby to take the major awards and vice versa. After that, if Aviator starts to lose the tech categories, it should be a night for Million Dollar Baby.

As always, I have allocated numbers to the nominees to indicate their percentage chance of winning. I have also put them in order of my confidence. Feel free just to scan down to the ones you are only interested in. Again, remember folks, whoever the academy picks is only THEIR opinion of who is deserving and not reflective of what the whole world or certain individual’s think (There are only 5,000 academy members). So here goes:

Best Picture

48 Aviator

47 Million Dollar Baby

5 Sideways

Ray

Finding Neverland

My Pick: The Aviator

My Second Pick Million Dollar Baby

My Preference: The Aviator

This was one of my three flip-flops. The awards that usually predict the outcome were split: Producers Guild for Aviator and Director’s Guild for Million Dollar Baby. Baby has the momentum, but it’s hard to imagine a character piece winning, especially when you have all those cinematographers and film editors voting for their best picture. That being said, the Screen Actors Guild makes up the majority of the Academy and Clint is very beloved by the Academy…..you see my dilemma.

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Best Director - Motion Picture

51 Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)

49 Martin Scorsese (Aviator)

Alexander Payne (Sideways)

Taylor Hackford (Ray)

Mike Leigh (Vera Drake)

My Pick: Clint Eastwood

My Second Pick Martin Scorsese

My Preference: Clint Eastwood

This is the second flip-flop category. Clint won the DGA, put his movie together with little financing, and the Oscars love him, but he has already won an Oscar for Unforgiven. Martin is one of the greatest directors of our time and has been nominated many times before and never won, and this movie is more of an epic that will get the techies to vote for him. Then again, I feel queasy thinking that this movie is the one he will win for best director. Put in the fact that Jack Nicholson and Warren Beatty used e-mail and phone calls to push for the Roman Polanski upset 2 years ago and you get the idea that it’s up in the air for either.

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Best Performance by an Actor

100 Jamie Foxx (Ray)

Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)

Leonardo DiCaprio (The Aviator)

Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda)

Johnny Depp (Finding Neverland)

My Pick: Jamie Foxx

My Second Pick Clint Eastwood

My Preference: Jamie Foxx

This is the only sure lock of the major categories. Jamie Foxx has won everything, he plays a famous musician who just died this year in a biopic, he made you forget he was an actor, and the speech at the Golden Globes made everyone want to hear something similar on Oscar night. If anyone can shockingly upset, it’s Clint Eastwood, who has never won in this category.

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Best Performance by an Actress

36 Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake

35 Hillary Swank (Million Dollar Baby)

24 Annette Bening (Being Julia)

5 Kate Winslet (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)

Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace)

My Pick: Imelda Staunton

My Second Pick Hilary Swank or Annette Bening

My Preference: Kate Winslet

My third and most difficult flip-flop of the year. I have an issue with Hilary Swank winning. It’s hard because I saw her performance, which blew me away, however, she won only 5 years ago and to win this twice would put her in the ranks of Bette Davis, Meryl Streep, Jodie Foster, and Sally Field. The other thing to think about is that a voter would look at the ballot and think `Hey, I voted for Hilary 5 years ago and she won over Annette Bening, maybe this time I will give to Annette`. Do not forget that she is married to Warrren Beatty (see note on Best Director), which is why I think she has been very quiet. However, if some Swank voters go for Annette, then it is quite possible for Vera Drake actress Imelda Staunton to come up and shock everyone. Yeah I know…`Who is Imelda Staunton?` you ask. Well her movie was also nominated for Best Director and Screenplay so it has some notoriety. Still, Hilary’s momentum is pretty strong…………oh good grief! Ok so what do I care! It’s not like I have to predict everything right. I am going on a limb right now and pick at least one upset. I mean this is the perfect year for an upset, eh? I just want you all know how much I struggled with this one.

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

55 Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby)

40 Thomas Haden Church (Sideways)

15 Clive Owen (Closer)

Jamie Foxx (Collateral)

Alan Alda (The Aviator)

My Pick: Morgan Freeman

My Second Pick Thomas Haden Church

My Preference: Morgan Freeman

In this case, the body of Morgan Freeman’s work and the momentum of the movie will help him win it. If he doesn’t, then look for Aviator to start picking up awards.

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

45 Cate Blanchett (The Aviator)

40 Virginia Madsen (Sideways)

15 Natalie Portman (Closer)

Laura Linney (Kinsey)

Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda)

My Pick: Cate Blanchett

My Second Pick Virginia Madsen

My Preference: Cate Blanchett

If Cate doesn’t win, then I think the Aviator is truly going to be shafted. Madsen was wonderful, but I am not sure it is enough.

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Best Original Screenplay - Motion Picture

75 Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

15 The Aviator

5 The Incredibles

5 Vera Drake

Hotel Rwanda

My Pick: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

My Second Pick The Aviator

My Preference: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

Can’t imagine Kaufman not winning for Eternal Sunshine. That being said, the other three are all quite able to win. This category doesn’t always follow the fold.

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Best Adaptive Screenplay - Motion Picture

75 Sideways

20 Million Dollar Baby

5 The Motorcycle Diaries

Before Sunset

Finding Neverland

My Pick: Sideways

My Second Pick Million Dollar Baby

My Preference: Sideways

Sideways is the one to beat and it will likely be its only reward.

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Best Original Score

80 Finding Neverland, Jan A.P. Kaczmarek

15 The Passion of the Christ, John Debney

5 Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, John Williams

Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events, Thomas Newman

The Village, James Newton Howard

Finding Neverland is the only best picture nominee, but don’t count out John Williams’ who wins all the time.

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Best Original Song - Motion Picture

50 Accidentally In Love, Shrek 2

35 Believe, The Polar Express

15 Learn To Be Lonely, The Phantom of the Opera

Al Otro Lado Del Río, The Motorcycle Diaries

Look To Your Path, The Chorus

Basically, it comes down to which song every voter knows—the one from Shrek 2, or the one sung by Josh Groban in Polar Express, or the new Andrew Lloyd Webber song (and he has never won an Oscar)

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Best Animated Film

85 The Incredibles

15 Shrek 2

Shark Tale

Though both Incredibles and Shrek 2 were good, the Incredibles was an original concept and the first. Shrek already won this.

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Best Foreign Language Film

70 The Sea Inside, Spain

30 The Chorus, France

As It Is in Heaven, Sweden

Downfall, Germany

Yesterday, South Africa

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Best Art Direction

45 Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events

40 The Aviator

15 A Very Long Engagement

Finding Neverland

The Phantom of the Opera

Although Aviator has the most nominations, Lemony Snicket won the Art Director`s guild. So if we feel that all the awards will not go to Aviator then go for the smaller films.

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Best Cinematography

40 House of Flying Daggers

35 The Aviator

25 A Very Long Engagement

The Passion of the Christ

The Phantom of the Opera

I am starting to think that maybe the Aviator won’t start sweeping and those individual films like House of Flying daggers and Very Long Engagement (which won its guild award) will take some.

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Best Costumes

70 The Aviator

30 Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events

Finding Neverland

Ray

Troy

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Best Make-up

55 Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events

45 The Passion of the Christ

The Sea Inside

This could be the only category where Passion of the Christ has a chance.

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Best Film Editing

55 Million Dollar Baby

45 The Aviator

Collateral

Finding Neverland

Ray

Aviator won the Editor`s guild but if Million Dollar Baby continues to dominate over Aviator, I am sure we all realize that Clint will take director and picture too.

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Best Sound Mixing

40 Ray

35 The Aviator

25 Spider-Man 2

The Incredibles

The Polar Express

Although Aviator took the guild, the music of Ray should help it win.

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Best Sound Editing

80 Spider-Man 2

20 The Incredibles

The Polar Express

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Best Visual Effects

100 Spider-Man 2

Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban

I, Robot

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Best Documentary Feature

60 Born into Brothels

40 Super Size Me

The Story of the Weeping Camel

Tupac: Resurrection

Twist of Faith

Super Size Me is actually a well-known flick so its popularity may help it win.

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Best Documentary Short

70 Autism Is a World

20 Sister Rose’s Passion

10 The Children of Leningradsky

Hardwood

Mighty Times: The Children’s March

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Best Animated Short Film

40 Birthday Boy

40 Gopher Broke

20 Ryan

Lorenzo

Guard Dog

It would be great if the Canadian film Ryan wins.

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Best Live Action Short Film

60 Little Terrorist

30 7:35 in the Morning

10 Everything in This Country Must

Two Cars, One Night

Wasp

So let’s see the Tally of the top ones:

The Aviator -- 3

Million Dollar Baby-- 3

Ray-- 2

Spiderman-- 2

Lemony Snicket-- 2

Sideways-- 1

Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind -- 1

Finding Neverland-- 1

Vera Drake-- 1

The Incredibles: -- 1

House of Flying Daggers-- 1

Shrek 2-- 1

by R. Bobby Umar

So there ya go:

The LAST thing I want to say is that usually one film is TOTALLY SHAFTED in either the nominations or the wins. This year, Sideways was shafted in the nominations and I would predict that Aviator could be the one that gets shafted in the wins. If this happens, expect Million Dollar to get more wins and some smaller films to surprise.