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Guilds, Globes, and Gargantuan confuse this year's OSCAR RACE
by R. Bobby Umar The Academy Awards will be presented on Sunday March 23, 2002. There are three new interesting aspects this year. One is Chicago’s ‘sweep-like’ dominance in nominations including its actors. Secondly, Miramax normally puts a ton of marketing behind its nominee, but this year it has three and they have decided to push them in different ways: Chicago for Best Picture, Gangs of New York for Best Director, and Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers for technical. Lastly, the pre-cursor awards have been mixed in the last month and so those who were front-runners have now shifted positions. In fact, the only award I would say is almost a sure thing is Chicago for Best Picture.
One trend has continued from the past few years. The major categories do not have to match each other. Best picture could be Chicago, Best Director Martin Scorsese for Gangs of New York, and the Best Screenplays could be two entirely different movies. However, Chicago threatens to bring the sweep factor back again. This has made the Oscars more difficult to predict and thus more exciting!
So why is it more complex now? A few reasons. About 10 years, the best picture winner would ‘sweep’ the other categories. Then about 7 years ago, movies like ‘The Usual Suspects’ would take away the screenplay awards. In recent years, even the best director does not necessarily win the best picture (e.g., Spielberg wins Director but his Saving Private Ryan lost best picture to Shakespeare in Love. 2 years ago, Soderbergh won Director for Traffic but lost Best Picture to Gladiator). This results in bad news for you Oscar pool hopefuls.
I have allocated numbers to the nominees to indicate their percentage chance of winning. I have also put them in order of my confidence. As well, some of the production companies are listed since they can nowadays make a difference. Feel free just to scan down to the ones you are interested in. Again, remember folks, whoever the academy picks is only THEIR opinion of who is deserving and not reflective of what the whole world or certain individual’s think (There are only 6000 academy members). So here goes:
Best Picture The Hours (Paramount) The Pianist, (Focus Features) Gangs of New York (Miramax) The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (New Line)
Chicago has won every major award leading up to Oscar night including the Golden Globe (GG), Best ensemble for the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), and the Producers Guild. Any other movie win would be a huge upset, although there is merit for pretty much all of them.
My Pick: Chicago My Second Pick Gangs of New York My Preference: Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers
----------------------------------------------------------------- Best Director - Motion Picture 60 Martin Scorsese, Gangs Of New York (Miramax) 40 Rob Marshall, Chicago (Miramax) Pedro Almodóvar, Talk To Her (Sony Classics) Stephen Daldry, The Hours (Paramount) Roman Polanski, The Pianist (Focus Features)
Scorsese seemed to be in the lead when Marshall all of a sudden won the Director’s Guild (DG), which is a 90% predictor. Last year, I predicted Robert Altman would win for his lifetime body of work even though Ron Howard won the DG. The same situation exists here but the big difference is that Rob Marshall is a very young first-timer. Miramax supports both but they have been campaigning for Scorsese so give him the slight edge.
My Pick & Preference: Martin Scorsese My Second Pick Rob Marshall
----------------------------------------------------------------- Best Performance by an Actor 60 Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs Of New York (Miramax) 30 Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt (New Line) 10 Adrien Brody, The Pianist (Focus Features) Nicolas Cage, Adaptation (Columbia) Michael Caine, The Quiet American (Miramax)
Each nominee has won before except Brody so that gives him a good chance. Daniel Day-Lewis' SAG and GG win locks his lead in this race. If Nicholson wins, he will tie Katherine Hepburn for the most Best Actor Oscars with 4. He is a definite runner-up but I am giving it to Day-Lewis.
My Pick & Preference: Daniel Day-Lewis My Second Pick Jack Nicholson
------------------------------------------------------------- Best Performance by an Actress 50 Nicole Kidman, The Hours (Paramount) 30 Renée Zellweger, Chicago (Miramax) 20 Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven (Focus Features) Diane Lane, Unfaithful (Fox) Salma Hayek, Frida (Miramax)
We literally have quite an exciting three-way race here. First, it was Moore who had all the buzz. Then Kidman started winning the GG and later awards. Last week, Renee Zellweger won the SAG award, which gives even more credence to the Chicago ‘sweep’ theory. Chicago could win everything including Zellweger here and later, Marshall for Best Director. I am hoping otherwise.
My Pick: Nicole Kidman My Second Pick Renée Zellweger My Preference: Julianne Moore
--------------------------------------------------------------
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role 50 Chris Cooper, Adaptation (Columbia) 35 Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can (DreamWorks) 15 Paul Newman, Road To Perdition (DreamWorks) John C. Reilly, Chicago (Miramax) Ed Harris, The Hours (Paramount)
Chris Cooper just last month was considered a ‘shoo-in’ like Jennifer Connelly was last year because he won every single pre-cursor award. But then The SAG award went to Walken. His momentum may be enough to win even though he has won before. Paul Newman may also get a ‘lifetime’ award but I don’t believe it is well deserved. Also, remember that historically, Supporting Actor has had many surprises over the years (James Coburn, Jim Broadbent, etc)
My Pick: & Preference: Chris Cooper My Second Pick Christopher Walken
------------------------------------------------------------ Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture 65 Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago (Miramax) 15 Julianne Moore, The Hours (Paramount) 15 Kathy Bates, About Schmidt (New Line) 4 Meryl Streep, Adaptation (Columbia) 1 Queen Latifah, Chicago (Miramax)
This is the only category where I believe it is quite possible for any one of these women legitimately to win. Zeta-Jones’ SAG further solidifies her bid to win the Supporting Actress Oscar. Moore could win because voters who vote for Zellweger or Kidman for Best Actress may put her down in Supporting instead. It could also split her popularity. Kathy Bates won the GG and had tremendous support earlier on. Streep is loved by the academy and has never won in this category. This finally leaves Latifah, whose amazing performance could win for several reasons. She fits the ‘Ingénue’ theory (e.g. Mira Sorvino, Angelina Jolie, Marisa Tomei, etc), and her win would continue last year’s African-American wins. Lastly, this category also has a history of shockers (Anna Paquin, Marisa Tomei, etc). However, I think the ingénue in this case is Zeta-Jones. After all, she is only 33 years old.
My Pick: Catherine Zeta-Jones My Second Pick Julianne Moore My Preference: Queen Latifah
------------------------------------------------------------- Best Original Screenplay 50 Far From Heaven, Todd Haynes 30 Talk to Her, Pedro Almodóvar 20 My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Nia Vardalos Gangs of New York, Jay Cocks, Kenneth Lonergan, and Steven Zaillian Y Tu Mama Tambien, Alfonso and Carlos Cuaron
Bowling For Columbine won the Writer's Guild (WG) resulting in confusion on the Oscar race, as it is not a nominee. Far From Heaven had a major lead earlier but now the nominations may change that, given the two Spanish entries. Pedro is very popular and could easily be awarded here instead of Best Director. Nia Vardalos has a good shot because of her movie’s popularity and that its Tom Hanks production company, but it would be considered an upset if she wins.
My Pick: Far From Heaven My Second Pick Hable Con Ella (Talk to Her) My Preference: Y Tu Mama Tambien
----------------------------------------------------------- Best Adaptive Screenplay 45 The Hours, David Hare 42 Adaptation, Charlie Kaufman 13 Chicago, Bill Condon The Pianist, Ronald Harwood About A Boy, Peter Hedges and Chris & Paul Weitz
Adaptation had all the momentum coming in, but then The Hours won the Writer’s Guild plus the scriptwriters’ award. However, similar to last year, it may not be enough to dethrone them. Chicago could win due to a sweep.
My Pick & Preference: The Hours My Second Pick : Adaptation
-------------------------------------------------------- Best Original Score 40 Frida, Elliot Goldenthal 30 Catch Me If You Can, John Williams 18 Far From Heaven, Elmer Bernstein 12 The Hours, Philip Glass Road To Perdition, Thomas Newman
I like the interesting group here, with Bernstein, Glass, Williams, and Newman. Frida has won two major awards including the GG and so it is the one to beat. The Hours won the British Oscars and John Williams has several Oscars to his credit, and this one is unlike his previous scores. For me, the score should enhance the movie and not take away from it.
My Pick: Frida My 2nd Pick: Catch me if you Can My Preference: Far from Heaven
------------------------------------------------------------- Best Original Song - Motion Picture 40 "The Hands That Built America,” Gangs Of New York, Music and Lyric by U2 35 "I Move On,” Chicago, Music by John Kander, Lyric by Fred Ebb 25 "Father and Daughter,” The Wild Thornberrys Movie, Music and Lyric by Paul Simon “Burn It Blue,” Frida, Music by Elliot Goldenthal, Lyric by Julie Taymor "Lose Yourself,” 8 Mile (Universal), Music & Lyrics by Eminem, Jeff Bass and Luis Resto
U2 won the GG and, along with Paul Simon, had the most momentum here. However, the Chicago juggernaut threatens to take it all away. Someday Eminem will have his day, but not today. U2 has a very Americana song that might help it.
My Pick: The Hands the Built America My Second Pick I Move On My Preference: Father and Daughter
-------------------------------------------------------------- Best Animated Film 80 Miyazaki’s Spirited Away, (Walt Disney) 15 Ice Age (20th Century Fox) 5 Lilo & Stitch (Walt Disney) Spirit: Stallion Of The Cimarron (Dreamworks) Treasure Planet (Walt Disney)
When you read all the people’s preference’s on various website, they all go crazy for Lilo and Stitch, and Ice Age. Noone thinks about Spirited Away, which has won incredible Critical acclaim everywhere. Its only problem is that many Oscar voters may not watch it, and thus not vote for it. If I could give negative points to Treasure Island, I would.
My Pick & Preference: Spirited Away My Second Pick: Ice Age
------------------------------------------------------------ Best Art Direction 40 Chicago 25 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers 25 Gangs of New York 10 Frida Road to Perdition
LOTR won at the Art Director’s Guild, but again Chicago has the broom. Gangs had some very nice sets.
My Pick: Chicago My Second Pick LOTR: The Two Towers My Preference: Gangs of New York
-------------------------------------------- Best Cinematography 50 Road To Perdition 30 Far From Heaven 20 Chicago Gangs Of New York The Pianist
Far From Heaven has been winning many pre-cursors and Chicago has the mop. However, Conrad Hall recently passed away and he won the Cinematographer Society award, so he should win posthumously
My Pick: Road To Perdition My Second Pick Far From Heaven My Preference: The Pianist
---------------------------------------------------------- Best Costumes 55 Chicago 45 Frida Gangs of New York The Hours The Pianist
This usually goes to those movies from a different time. Frida got lovely reviews regarding its innovation with colour, but Chicago had some dazzling displays of cloth and skin.
My Pick & Preference: Chicago My Second Pick: Frida
-------------------------------------------------- Best Make-up 100 Frida The Time Machine
Due to a major screw-up in this category, only 2 films were nominated. Incredible that movies such as LOTR are not here. Frida shares being a ‘shoo-in’ with Chicago, although for a lesser category.
My Pick & Preference: Frida
------------------------------------------------ Best Film Editing 60 Chicago 30 Gangs of New York 10 The Hours The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers The Pianist
The American Cinema Editors Awards were won by Chicago, and Gangs, but which one holds the bigger broom. Hmmm…
My Pick: Chicago My Second Pick: Gangs of New York My Preference: LOTR: The Two Towers
---------------------------------------- Best Sound 40 Chicago 25 Road To Perdition 25 Gangs Of New York 10 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Spider-Man
At this point, can I just say that I am annoyed with the idea that LOTR: The Two Tower is ‘so last year…’ Hmmph.
My Pick: Chicago My Second Pick: Road to Perdition My Preference: LOTR: The Two Towers
------------------------------------------------------ Best Sound Editing 80 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers 20 Road To Perdition Minority Report
Unless this is Conrad Hall night, go with LOTR.
My Pick: A Beautiful Mind My Second Pick: Lord of the Rings (LOTR) My Preference: Lord of the Rings
-------------------------------------------- Best Visual Effects 100 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers Star Wars: Attack of the Clones Spider-man
I think Gollum pretty much says it all. He was so good, that people wanted a nomination in Supporting Actor. Spider-man was an excellent movie but the effects were weak in comparison. In addition, at the Visual Effects Society Awards, LOTR won 8 out of 10 awards.
My Pick & Preference: LOTR: The Two Towers My Second Pick: Star Wars: Attack of the Clones
----------------------------------------------------- Best Foreign Language Film 45 Nowhere In Africa, Germany 25 The Crime Of Father Amaro, Mexico 20 Hero, China 10 The Man Without A Past, Finland Zus & Zo, The Netherlands
I do not know too much about this category, but there has been some buzz for the first three, especially Nowhere in Africa
My Pick: Nowhere in Africa My Second Pick: The Crime Of Father Amaro
---------------------------------------------------------- Best Achievement in Documentary Feature 95 Bowling For Columbine (UA), Michael Moore and Michael Donovan 2 Daughter From Danang (Cowboy Pictures), Gail Dolgin and Vincente Franco 1 Prisoner Of Paradise (Alliance Atlantis), Malcolm Clarke and Stuart Sender 1 Spellbound (THINKFilm), Jeffrey Blitz and Sean Welch 1 Winged Migration (Sony Classics), Jacques Perrin
Wow, here there is one that many people have heard of! Then again, even Hoop Dreams lost.
My Pick & Preference: Bowling for Columbine My Second Pick Daughter from Danang
----------------------------------------------------------- Best Achievement in Documentary Short Subject 80 Twin Towers 20 Mighty Times: The Legacy Of Rosa Parks The Collector Of Bedford Street Why Can't We Be A Family Again?
It used to be that movies about the Holocaust and racial oppression (like apartheid or slavery) were the ones to win. Given 9/11, this is now the new real-life story that everyone, including the Oscars, will recognize and relate to.
My Pick: Twin Towers My Second Pick: Mighty Times
-------------------------------------------------------- Best Animated Short Film 60 Mike's New Car 30 The Chubbchubbs 5 Mt. Head 3 The Cathedral! 2 Das Rad
Mike’s New Car is also another one people have heard of, since it was on the Monster’s Inc DVD.
My Pick & Preference: Mike’s New Car My Second Pick The Chubbchubbs
-------------------------------------- Best Live Action Short Film 50 Inja (Dog) 30 Fait D'Hiver 20 Johnny Flynton I'll Wait For The Next One... (J'Attendrai Le Suivant...) This Charming Man (Der Er En Yndig Mand)
My Pick: Inja My Second Pick: Fait D’hiver
So there you have it. I have Chicago winning 6, but that could easily be 8 or 9, and possibly 3 or 4, but I think it is more likely to go up than down. As for best dressed, Nicole Kidman and Salma Hayek have never been on a worst dressed list so you can count on them to shine as much as Halle Berry. I am also look forward to seeing what Queen Latifah will wear as well as Catherine Zeta-Jones’ maternity dress. I hope that Jennifer Connelly will rebound from her disastrous, unflattering, and anorexic look last year and Gwyneth will stay away from Goth. My guess for the most unique one will probably be Julianne Moore.
Here is the final tally.
6 Chicago 3 Gangs of New York 2 Frida 2 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers 2 The Hours 1 Adaptation 1 Far From Heaven 1 Road to Perdition
Good luck, and have fun.
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