Bobby's Oscar Predictions 2003, Picking the Nominations

NO CLEAR FRONT-RUNNER FOR BEST PICTURE IN OSCAR NOMINATION RACE

– R. Bobby Umar

The Oscar Nominations will be announced on February 11, 2003. The results will set the course for the Oscar race to be determined in March 23, 2003. Since I have been following these awards and the Oscars for about 15 years now, I thought I would share my views of who is going to win and why. Naturally, I am not perfect but my predictions are fairly accurate. I will attempt to isolate who will get nominated, who would be good alternate choices, and who the long shots are. Remember folks, whoever the academy picks is only THEIR opinion of who is deserving and not reflective of what the whole world or certain individual’s think (There are only 7000 academy members). Any item with an asterisk (*) beside it means ‘shoo-in’. I have also put them in order of my confidence. As well, some of the production companies are listed since they can nowadays make a difference. Feel free to just scan down to the ones you are only interested in.

So why is it more complex now? A few reasons. About 10 years, the best picture winner would ‘sweep’ the other categories. Then about 7 years ago, movies like ‘The Usual Suspects’ would take away the screenplay awards. In recent years, even the best director does not necessarily win the best picture (e.g., Spielberg wins Director but his Saving Private Ryan lost best picture to Shakespeare in Love. 2 years ago, Soderbergh won Director for Traffic but lost Best Picture to Gladiator). So now it is more… how do you say?...Ah yes!...compliquée…

Best Picture

*Chicago (Miramax)

*The Hours (Paramount)

Gangs of New York (Miramax)

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (New Line)

Far From Heaven (Focus Features)

The two that I am iffy on are LOTR, only because it hasn’t really won much pre-awards, and Far From Heaven, which had great momentum but seems to have lost it quickly. Moreover, I am getting rid of The Pianist by a hair only because I had to pick one Best Director’s movie to not be picked since it happens every single year…so I went with Polanski. LOTR is hard to ignore and Peter Jackson did get the Directors Guild nomination. I am sure one of these three will be the one where the Picture/Director doesn’t match. My Big Fat Greek Wedding would be a shocker indeed, but since it was produced by academy-loved Tom Hanks, who knows? In addition, Spain did not submit Talk to Her in the Foreign Language category perhaps with the hope it would get a nomination with the big boys. Ay Caramba, I think they need to be more critical.

Other good possibles: The Pianist, (Focus Features), Adaptation, (Columbia), About Schmidt, (New Line), Catch Me If You Can, (DreamWorks)

Longshots/Spoilers: My Big Fat Greek Wedding (IFC Films), Talk To Her (Sony Classics),

Road to Perdition (DreamWorks)

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Best Director - Motion Picture

*Stephen Daldry, The Hours (Paramount)

*Martin Scorsese, Gangs Of New York (Miramax)

Rob Marshall, Chicago (Miramax)

Peter Jackson, The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (New Line)

Roman Polanski, The Pianist (Focus Features)

There is ALWAYS one director that doesn’t get a Best Picture. I am going with Polanski getting this one but not Best Picture and the opposite happening to Haynes for Far From Heaven. They both could easily be replaced by Jonze or Payne.

Other good possibles: Todd Haynes, Far From Heaven, Spike Jonze, Adaptation,(Columbia), Alexander Payne, About Schmidt (New Line), Steven Spielberg, Catch Me If You Can (DreamWorks)

Longshots/Spoilers: Pedro Almodóvar, Talk To Her (Sony Classics)

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Best Performance by an Actor

*Daniel Day-Lewis, Gangs Of New York (Miramax)

*Jack Nicholson, About Schmidt (New Line)

Adrien Brody, The Pianist (Focus Features)

Nicolas Cage, Adaptation (Columbia)

Richard Gere, Chicago (Miramax)

This is pretty much a six-man race but I am giving Richard Gere his first ever nomination, above Michael Caine, only because Chicago dominated the Screen Actor Guilds (SAGs) and he won a Golden Globe (GG). Caine could also knock out Cage but the first three seem a pretty good bet.

Other good possibles: Michael Caine, The Quiet American (Miramax)

Longshots/Spoilers: Leonardo DiCaprio, Catch Me If You Can (DreamWorks)

Adam Sandler, Punch-Drunk Love (Columbia), Robin Williams, One Hour Photo, Kieran Culkin, Igby Goes Down

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Best Performance by an Actress

*Julianne Moore, Far From Heaven (Focus Features)

*Nicole Kidman, The Hours (Paramount)

*Diane Lane, Unfaithful (Fox)

Renée Zellweger, Chicago (Miramax)

Salma Hayek, Frida (Miramax)

This category has many potentials. The only sure ones are the first three, although Lane is lucky to be here since her movie was so long ago. Zellweger won the GG, which really helps. The last spot I give to Hayek mostly because she exec-produced Frida for so long, and Streep will likely get a nomination anyways in Supporting.

Other good possibles: Meryl Streep, The Hours (Paramount)

Longshots/Spoilers: Nia Vardalos, My Big Fat Greek Wedding (IFC Films), Maggie Gyllenhaal, Secretary

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Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

*Chris Cooper, Adaptation (Columbia)

Christopher Walken, Catch Me If You Can (DreamWorks)

Dennis Quaid, Far From Heaven (Focus Features)

Paul Newman, Road To Perdition (DreamWorks)

Alfred Molina, Frida (Miramax)

Usually this category is the toughest, yet it seems that everything is reversed this year. This one may be the easiest one to pick a winner since Chris Cooper is this year’s Jennifer Connelly. Like her, we shall see how long he keeps winning every pre-cursor award. Although Paul Newman wasn’t nominated for a SAG, his history and the role he played are powerful enough to warrant a nomination. Molina and Harris got SAG noms but The Hours has way too many potential nominations. If both Moore and Clarkson get noms then you can count Harris too. The same goes for Hayek/Molina or John C. Reilly with the Chicago cast. Note also that Andy Serkis has made history with his incredible lifelike portrayal of Gollum – and he did all the movement, plus the voice. The academy will either eventually have to recognize this or invent a new category. I would recommend the former.

Other good possibles: Ed Harris, The Hours (Paramount), John C. Reilly, Chicago (Miramax),

Longshots/Spoilers: Ray Liotta, Narc, Tom Hanks, Catch Me if you Can, Viggo Mortensen, LOTR

Special Mention: Andy Serkis as Gollum, LOTR: The Two Towers

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Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

*Kathy Bates, About Schmidt (New Line)

Catherine Zeta-Jones, Chicago (Miramax)

Meryl Streep, Adaptation (Columbia)

Queen Latifah, Chicago (Miramax)

Patricia Clarkson, The Hours (Paramount)

There are tons of potentials here. The only for sure candidate is Kathy Bates. Both Moore and Streep have a big chance to score nominations in both acting categories and I think it may be my one big mistake. I tend to like favouring other unknowns for this. Pfeiffer was also nominated for a SAG as was Moore so it’s tougher to decide here. The last two could easily be switched with the two below.

Other good possibles: Julianne Moore, The Hours (Paramount), Michelle Pfeiffer, White Oleander (Warner Bros.)

Longshots/Spoilers: Toni Collete, About a Boy, Emily Watson, Punch-Drunk Love, Samantha Morton, Minority Report, Edie Falco, Sunshine State, Cameron Diaz, Gangs Of New York, Susan Sarandon, Igby Goes Down, Miranda Richardson, Spider

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Best Original Screenplay - Motion Picture

*Far From Heaven, Todd Haynes

*Gangs of New York, Jay Cocks, Kenneth Lonergan, and Steven Zaillian

*My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Nia Vardalos

Punch-Drunk Love, Paul Thomas Anderson

Talk to Her, Pedro Almodovar

The first three are pretty locked. Punch-Drunk-Love is a good bet since Anderson has been nominated twice before, although the Writer’s Guild (WG) gave noms to Antwone Fisher and Bowling for Columbine. However, this is the only category in which Pedro Almodovar has a shot for a nom so I am giving him the benefit of doubt here.

Other good possibles: Y Tu Mama Tambien, Alfonso and Carlos Cuaron, Antwone Fisher (Fox Searchlight), Antwone Fisher, Bowling For Columbine (UA), Michael Moore

Longshots/Spoilers: Igby Goes Down, Burr Steers & Dylan Kidd, Sunshine State,

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Best Adaptive Screenplay - Motion Picture

*Adaptation, Charlie Kaufman

*About Schmidt, Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor

*Chicago, Bill Condon

*The Hours, David Hare

The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Phillipa Boyens, Peter Jackson, Stephen Sinclair & Fran Walsh

About a Boy was nominated for a WG, but I think the fifth choice is between LOTR and The Pianist,

depending upon which of those two get the Best Picture/Director noms.

Other good possibles: The Pianist, Ronald Harwood, About A Boy, Peter Hedges and Chris & Paul Weitz, Frida, Rodrigo Garcia, The Quiet American, Robert Shenkkan & Christopher Hampton

Longshots/Spoilers: Catch Me If You Can, Jeff Nathanson, Minority Report, Scott Frank & Jon Cohen, Auto Focus, Michael Gerbosi & Paul Schrader, Nicholas Nickleby, Doug McGrath

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Best Foreign Language Film

*City Of God (Miramax), Brazil

Hero (Miramax), China

Balzac and the Little Chinese Seamstress, France

Nowhere In Africa, Germany

Mondays in the Sun, (Lion`s Gate), Fernando León de Aranoa

I know many people are looking for Atanarjuat (The Fast Runner), but it is ineligible due to its submission as an entry last year. Why it wasn’t nominated is beyond me-- probably that Canada doesn’t seem foreign to the US. Also, this year, Talk to Her was ineligible so it leaves this category wide open.

Other good possibles: The Man Without a Past, Aki Kaurismäki, El Crimen Del Padre Amaro (Samuel Goldwyn), Mexico

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Best Animated Film

*Miyazaki’s Spirited Away, (Walt Disney)

*Ice Age (20th Century Fox)

Lilo & Stitch (Walt Disney)

Spirited Away is the one to beat and it’s a foreign film to boot. Ice Age was so long ago, the name makes sense here, and Lilo & Stitch was just a low quality movie getting by in a bad year for animated flicks.

Other good possibles: Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron

Longshots/Spoilers: The Wild Thorn berry’s

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Best Original Score

*Frida, Elliot Goldenthal

*Far From Heaven, Elmer Bernstein

*The Hours, Philip Glass

Catch Me If You Can, John Williams

Rabbit-Proof Fence, Peter Gabriel

I like the interesting group here, with Bernstein, Glass, Williams, and Gabriel. They used to split this category into Comedy/Musical and Drama, but they went back to the old one….probably because Dominant Disney stopped making those amazing musicals….too bad.

Other good possibles: The Pianist, 25th Hour, Terence Blanchard, Minority Report,

Longshots/Spoilers: LOTR: The Two Towers, Howard Shore, Gangs of New York,

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Best Original Song - Motion Picture

*"The Hands That Built America,” Gangs Of New York, U2

*"Father and Daughter,” The Wild Thornberrys Movie, Paul Simon

*"Lose Yourself,” 8 Mile, Eminem

“Hero,” Spider-Man, Chad Kroeger

“Here I Am,” Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron, Music by Hans Zimmer, Lyrics by Bryan Adams and Gretchen Peters

Other good possibles: "Gollum's Song," lyrics Fran Walsh, music Howard Shore, sung by Emiliana Torrini

Longshots/Spoilers "Die Another Day,” Die Another Day, Music by Madonna and Mirwais Ahmadzaï, Lyrics by Madonna

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Best Art Direction

*Chicago, John Myhre

*Gangs of New York, Dante Ferretti

*The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Grant Major

Road to Perdition, Dennis Gassner

The Pianist, Nenad Pecur

Other good possibles: Far From Heaven, The Hours, Minority Report

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Best Cinematography

*Far From Heaven, Edward Lachman

*The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Frida, Rodrigo Prieto

Road to Perdition, Conrad L. Hall

Gangs of New York, Michael Ballhaus

Other good possibles: Minority Report and Chicago

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Best Costumes

*Chicago, Colleen Atwood

*Frida, Julie Weiss

*The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, Ngila Dickson

Road to Perdition, Albert Wolsky

Gangs of New York, Sandy Powell

Other good possibles: Far From Heaven

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Best Make-up

*Frida, Judy Chin, Maryann Marchetti, John Jackson

The Time Machine, Stan Winston

Other Possibles: Harry Potter And The Chamber Of Secrets (Warner Bros.), Amanda Knight, Jane Royle, Clare LeVesconte; The Lord Of The Rings: The Two Towers, Gino Acevedo, Jason Docerty, Richard Taylor; Chicago, Samuel Jordan, Patricia Keighran, Edelgard Pfuegl

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Best Film Editing

*Chicago, Martin Walsh

*The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers, D. Michael Horton, Jabez Olssen

The Hours, Peter Boyle

Gangs of New York, Thelma Schoonmaker

Minority Report, Michael Kahn

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Best Sound

*The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Chicago

Spider-Man

Minority Report

Star Wars: Attack of the Clones

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Best Sound Editing

*The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Minority Report

Spider-Man

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Best Visual Effects

*The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

Star Wars: Attack of the Clones

Minority Report

So let’s see the Tally: 10 Chicago

10 The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers

9 Gangs of New York

7 The Hours

6 Far From Heaven

6 Frida

4 Road to Perdition

4 Minority Report

3 The Pianist

3 Adaptation

3 About Schmidt

3 Spiderman

2 Star Wars: Attack of the Clones

1 My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Talk to Her, Punch-Drunk-Love, Unfaithful, Rabbit-Proof Fence, The Time Machine, 8 Mile, The Wild Thornberrys, Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron, Spirited Away, Ice Age, Lilo & Stitch

So there ya go:

The LAST thing I want to say is that usually one film gets TOTALLY SHAFTED in the nominations. This year, I would predict that either Frida or Road to Perdition would get shafted. I would also predict that either The Pianist or About Schmidt would benefit from this, or it would be split amongst smaller films.

Posted by TheScribe at February 10, 2003 11:07 PM |Email ScribeCentral.com

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